With respect of the launch of Paramount’s Transformers 3D, it is most likely that they will not move the date of the launch. For them, they are most likely to try to boost sales in the premier and the subsequent weekend that will follow before the premier of Warner Bro’s Harry Porter deathly hallows. If they choose to move the dates forward, increased competition would reduce returns on investment during production. Another reason they would not want to move their date would be that their premier date sits on a weekend where most people would be willing to attend such a premier. The Independence Day weekend is long and provides a good chance to make that big buck on a weekend that will provide them with the returns that they haven looking forward to.
When releasing a movie, there are many considerations to be made. The biggest consideration is the target returns to be made. This will be determined by the date of debut, the type of competition expected from other debuts, as well as the timetable of other movies being debut by the same company. For big returns, the premier is usually the point of focus. This is because the cinemas will only be receiving a 10% cut from ticket sale with a $10,000 renting. This would translate to a killing if the premier records large number in attendance. Subsequent to that, the cinemas would increase by 10% with every weekend they show the production, hence diminishing returns on the part of the producing company. Again, one would not want to premier a movie in the same weekend as a movie considered as serious competition, since the cinemas would be forced to choose which movie to show and therefore loose on the high returns made on a premier. One would also want to space movies that one have produced in order to reduce chances of inside competition from the same brand.
In this case, the prediction is that both premier dates will not change. Each of these companies know the importance of the premier date and that changing to any date other than what they have currently stated will bring competition that may force them to fold due to low returns and profit.